"We now know what threats we face, what is needed to reduce emissions, and what it costs" - Dr. Rajendra Pachauri, Chairman of IPCC and Nobel Peace Prize Winner, encourages businesses to take on their part of the responsibility to mitigate climate change.
On December 10th, 2007, Dr. Rajendra Pachauri received the Nobel Peace Prize on behalf of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) together with Al Gore. The IPCC was recognised for providing scientific evidence of man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change.
“The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change) is extremely honoured by the recognition that the Norwegian Nobel Committee has paid to our work”, says Dr Pachauri, who, when congratulated on the award, is quick to pay tribute to the thousands of scientists around the world, who have contributed to the work of the Panel.
We meet Dr Pachauri in Oslo for an exclusive interview. He immediately strikes us as a calm and friendly person, allowing us ample time to tap into his knowledge and views on climate change, despite his busy schedule. He reveals his passionate engagement in the subject, and takes a more serious tone as he starts explaining how climate change is a threat to peace.
Climate change a peace threat
“First of all, extreme events will increase in frequency and intensity. Although not implying that Hurricane Katrina was a direct consequence of human-inflicted climate change, it clearly showed that such events can be extremely disruptive to even well-functioning societies, with breakdown of law and order. In these situations, you will always have elements, who want to exploit the situation creating violence and terror,” says Dr Pachauri.
According to Dr Pachauri, the other direct impact on peace will occur from movements of large populations. Changes in precipitation, leading to floods, droughts, and heat waves, will have dramatic impact on agriculture, forcing people to leave farm lands. Sea level rise, especially in delta areas with high population density, will have direct impact on both human life and property, or forcing people to migrate to other regions. Large movement of populations will inevitably lead to conflicts. One recent example of that is Darfur in Africa.
“Climate change impacts will exacerbate existing stresses on already vulnerable populations. In our reports, we estimate that in Africa alone, 75 to 250 million people will be stressed by water scarcity, leading to potential fights over water. So this is very much an ethical question, because in both developed and developing countries, the poor will suffer the most,” he says.
Bali and the Kyoto-protocol successor
In addition to the Nobel Peace Prize, the IPCC reached another significant achievement recently. The global convention on climate change in Bali in December was driven by and based on the IPCC reports. “And for the first time, no one questioned the validity of the scientific evidence,” Dr Pachauri continues.
The Bali convention started a process towards the Copenhagen convention in 2009. Here, the world’s nations aim to reach a new agreement and set new targets to replace the Kyoto protocol, which expires in 2012.
Dr Pachauri stresses the importance of the USA being part of a new agreement. When they join, as Australia now also has done, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) market and other quota trading markets will expand heavily, and we will see a much bigger carbon market and a higher price on carbon.
Price on carbon is key
The price on carbon is an important part of the mitigation measures. With a much higher carbon price, new low-carbon energy technologies and renewable energy solutions will become economically viable and a real alternative to fossil fuels.
“Also, the CDM decision making process must become much more efficient. The CDM Executive Board must create simpler rules, without making them too loose. I think they have the experience now to develop and run a more efficient system,” says Dr Pachauri.
Having a large and efficient carbon market requires independent third parties, such as DNV, to validate projects, and measure and verify emission reductions. “This is an extremely important role and will become even more critical as the market grows,” comments Dr Pachauri.
Carbon capture and storage
The IPCC has not only put forward all the evidence needed to take climate change very seriously – sooner rather than later. The reports clearly spell out what needs to be done to curb emissions, and the costs are modest if we act now. Over a 30 year period it will take us just one more year to reach the level of global GDP we would have reached without the mitigation costs. Finally, the IPCC concludes that the technologies needed to mitigate climate change are already here, or just around the corner of being commercialised.
One such technology is carbon capture and storage (CCS). Says Dr Pachari, “I think it can be a significant means of reducing CO2 emissions to the atmosphere, but our perception is that we are not there yet.” He points out, that it will take time before it becomes commercially available, but that Norway is in a position to play a leading role by investing in the technology and making it a viable solution. He continues: “There is no doubt that CCS potentially has a very significant role to play, but as one of many solutions”.
The relevance for businesses
The IPCC findings are first and foremost directed towards policy makers. However, many aspects of the reports are also highly relevant for businesses. “The fourth Assessment Report provides assessments of which technologies are promising and which have problems associated with them, helping businesses in their technology investment plans. I am aware that they carry out these assessments themselves, but the IPCC report puts all the findings into a framework and provides businesses with much wider information to base their decisions upon,” Dr Pachauri points out.
An increasing number of businesses are investing in environmental initiatives because it is becoming good business. There is mounting pressure from customers for businesses to communicate their green credentials. Dr Pachauri encourages businesses to take on their part of the responsibility to mitigate climate change. However, they must have their environmental initiatives verified by a third party to provide credibility to their green initiatives, he advises.
Mitigation and adaptation
IPCC is very clear about the need for policy makers to focus on mitigation and adaptation measures at the same time. Adaptation is essential to address the impacts resulting from the warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions. But if we only focus on adaptation, the impacts of climate change will be so severe that adaptation costs will accelerate rapidly and we will see enormous social, environmental and economic disruption. The same applies for businesses. They must find ways to operate in a greener way and reduce emissions as well as adapting to the direct impact of climate change. Businesses will have to consider how rising sea levels, extreme events, precipitations and heat waves impact their business. Companies relying on agriculture will have to consider climate change effects on farm lands, hence on prices of primary products. Industries relying heavily on water in their manufacturing process will have to deal with water scarcity. Most businesses will have to adapt in one way or the other.
Looking ahead
Although Dr Pachauri’s expression is mostly serious as he elaborates on the upsetting findings, he does nothing to hide a well-developed sense of humour. Reflecting on the road ahead for him personally and for the IPCC he comments: “Working as Chairman of IPCC, which I am not being paid for by the way, has taken up all my time, so I actually feel a little guilty towards my colleagues at The Energy and Resources Institute. However, if the Indian government decides to renew their trust and support my candidacy as Chairman of IPCC, I will consider running for a new period.”